The space-based infrastructure around our planet performs a wide range of extremely important tasks that are indispensable for the functioning of ultra-modern industrial societies. This applies not only to the faultless functioning of energy supply, ATMs, navigation or stock exchange trading: without the data obtained via satellites, global trends and regional consequences of climate change are also much more difficult to record. Ensuring the reliable and sustainable functioning of this space-based infrastructure is thus vital for the survival of human civilization in many respects. At the same time, the importance of space for humanity goes beyond the mere use of satellites for political, economic, scientific or military purposes, as illustrated by concrete initiatives to develop space tourism or astro-mining, government plans for a prestigious return of man to the Moon, or private sector activities to colonize Mars. 

Main focus of the study

Due to the importance of space for our everyday lives, which is difficult to overestimate, CASSIS will address the question of the extent to which Europe needs autonomous access to space from a strategic point of view in the 6-month study. The answer to this question is highly controversial in the European space industry. In order to take account of the thematic complexity of the initial question, three different scenarios regarding Europe's access to space are used to answer the question and compared with each other in terms of the respective pros and cons. In addition to the extensive literature research, semi-structured interviews will be conducted with a large number of experts in order to adequately answer the question. Experts from the fields of science, industry, military & security, civilian public users and international experts in the form of members of other national space agencies will be interviewed. This approach allows different perspectives to be taken into account in the best possible way, which in turn enables a more nuanced answer to the question. The aim of this project is to determine which of the three different scenarios is best suited to Europe's access to space from a strategic perspective.

The different scenarios

Scenario 1 deals with the continuation of the current Ariane 6 model, i.e. the construction and operation of an institutionally supported launcher with state funding and subsidies for the next generations of European launchers.

Scenario 2 is dedicated to meeting European institutional demand for launch services through exclusively market- and competition-oriented procurement of commercial launch services from European providers. In this scenario, ArianeGroup would no longer develop launchers for ESA alone, but ESA would purchase launch services on the European market and thus become a customer. This scenario is based on NASA's approach in the USA, as the American space agency no longer produces its own rockets, as it did in the days of the first space race, but now buys them on the market (SpaceX).

Scenario 3 deals with meeting the institutional demand for launch services by exclusively purchasing launch services on the global market in a market-oriented and competitive manner. In this scenario, ESA would no longer support the construction of a rocket institutionally, but would purchase launch services on the global market.

In developing the study's research questions and working on the three scenarios, CASSIS is grateful to be able to draw on the expertise and support of the German Space Agency at DLR, among others, as part of its independent scientific work on the topic. With the political science expertise of CASSIS and the space policy expertise of the space agency, among others, the study offers a unique opportunity to approach the scientific answer to the question of Europe's strategically autonomous access to space in fruitful cooperation between science and practice. CASSIS is not working on behalf of the space agency and is free to draw its own conclusions. The study is conducted independently and solely according to scientific standards.

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