September 29 - October 2, 2022
For many years, the International Security Forum Bonn (ISFB) has served as a platform to convene distinguished international experts and practitioners of security and foreign policy, and to debate the future of transatlantic relations and key challenges in international politics. The aims are to identify ways and means for a successful German, European and transatlantic, foreign and security policy, and to develop and discuss comprehensive strategic solutions to pressing security challenges.
Under the title "Zeitenwende - A New Era in International Relations and Security Cooperation", international experts gathered in Bonn on the Main Day to discuss the future of transatlantic relations in the shadow of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Among the most prominent questions were: What will be the expected transformations of the transatlantic alliance, and German, U.S. and European foreign and security policy in the face of Russian acts of violence on the EU's borders? Which issues, as well as which regions and their developments, will be crucial for the alliance and the security of EU members in the coming years? What does the growing problem of antisemitism mean not only for society but also for transnational security cooperation and the fight against antisemitism? Another topic was the opportunity of the middle powers.
The Bonn Future Lab is a new multi-day format consisting of two core segments: First, an international conference day, and second, a Strategic Foresight Workshop. The conference day focuses on global megatrends, especially from a security but also from a development perspective (in 2022: "Climate Change and Security"). The Strategic Foresight Workshop, working in combination with the conference day, is an event where the techniques and methods of strategic foresight will be conveyed to young multipliers ("decision-makers of the day after tomorrow"), who have previously gained an insight into the current scientific debates through the expert discussions with renowned national and international experts. The Bonn Future Lab is part of the project Sicherheitsforschung.NRW.
Our Partners:
Thursday, September 29, 2022
10:30 a.m. - 8:30 p.m.
Opening event of this year's International Security Forum Bonn 2022
"Zeitenwende" - A New Era in International Relations and Security Cooperation
Welcoming Remarks
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Michael Hoch
Rector, University of Bonn
Introduction
Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie
Henry Kissinger Professor for Security and Strategic Studies and Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn
Opening Remarks
Hendrik Wüst (digital)
Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia, Düsseldorf
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Karl Kaiser (digital)
Former Adjunct Professor for Public Policy and Senior Fellow, Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Angus Robertson MSP (digital)
Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, External Affairs and Culture, Scottish Government, Edinburgh
Abstract
The Main Day introductory words of the ISFB 2022 were given by the University of Bonn Rector, Dr. Dr. h.c. Michael Hoch. He thanked all the partners who made the event possible. He also mentioned his role as Rector, a role which follows a great tradition but also has the capacity to change in response to challenging times. Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie followed this by pointing out the necessary link between diplomacy and strategy, and discussed the broad understanding of security as the basis for joint action. The patron of the event, Hendrik Wüst, then addressed the guests in a video message. He emphasized Germany's role in Europe and stressed the momentum of now having to talk about security policy. Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Karl Kaiser also spoke in a video message. In addition to the other speakers, Kaiser emphasized the importance of the Henry Kissinger Professorship– a position founded with the goals of honoring Henry Kissinger and bringing the discourse on security policy to the University of Bonn. The closing words of the Opening Remarks were given by Angus Robertson MSP, who emphasized the role of climate security and energy security, thus pointing the way to the day ahead.
Panel Discussion I
"Religion, Conflict and Politics – A View from both Sides of the Atlantic"
Keynote Speech
Prof. Dr. Scott Appleby
Marilyn Keough Dean, Keough School of Global Affairs, Professor of History, University of Notre Dame/Indiana
Discussion
Prof. Dr. Josefina Echavarría Alvarez
Director of the Peace Accords Matrix (PAM), Associate Professor of the Practice, University of Notre Dame/Indiana
Prof. Dr. Thomas Weber
Professor of History and International Affairs, University of Aberdeen
Chair
Prof. Dr. Colin Barr
Director, Clingen Family Center for the Study of Modern Ireland, Professor of Modern Irish History, University of Notre Dame/Indiana
Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie
Henry Kissinger Professor for Security and Strategic Studies and Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn
Abstract
The first panel of the ISFB 2022 dealt with the role of religion in politics and as a factor acting in accordance with its own norms. The topic was introduced with a short speech by Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie and followed by a lecture by Prof. Dr. Scott Appleby, with subsequent discussion with the participation of Prof. Dr. Colin Barr, Prof. Dr. Thomas Weber and Prof. Dr. Josefina Echavarría Alvarez.
Religion is often underestimated in politics, yet it is a great motivator for peace. However, it can also legitimize violence and easily be abused by religious officials. History shows a trend back to religious movements, which means that religion and the prominent role of religious institutions need to be examined more closely from different angles. In particular, the war in Ukraine has underscored the need to differentiate religious movements and develop categories to formulate political responses.
Panel Discussion II
"Antisemitism as a Growing Problem in an Age of Uncertainty - A Global Perspective"
Impulse Statement
Dr. Felix Klein
Federal Government Commissioner for Jewish Life in Germany and the Fight against Antisemitism, Berlin
Statement
Dr. Wilhelm Sandrisser
Deputy Director General – Head of Security, Psychological Service, Security Academy, Austrian Ministry of the Interior, Vienna
Discussion
Mag. Lisa Fellhofer
Director, Austrian Fund for the Documentation of Religiously Motivated Political Extremism, Vienna
Dr. Remko Leemhuis
Director, AJC Berlin Lawrence & Lee Ramer Institute for German-Jewish Relations, Berlin
Chair
Dr. Mayssoun Zein Al Din
Executive Director, Academy of International Affairs NRW, Bonn
Abstract
The second panel of the ISFB 2022 Main Day addressed antisemitism as a growing global problem. Dr. Felix Klein, Dr. Wilhelm Sandrisser, Mag. Lisa Fellhofer, Dr. Remko Leemhuis as well as Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie discussed the Ukraine war as a catalyst for politically motivated crimes, particularly in the form of hate speech on the internet. Conspiracy theorists portray Jews as a collective entity that controls the globalized Western world. The security threats that arise from that viewpoint must be addressed in a whole of society approach, including education, and not by security means alone. This is also true for antisemitism that arises from the religious extremist milieus like European Islamism congregation. The panelists furthermore discussed the causal links between the Middle East conflict, resentment toward the state of Israel in European societies, and antisemitism in the context of the antisemitic art on display at this year's documental.
Impulse statements
"The Impact of Current Global Challenges on the Transatlantic Agenda"
Jürgen Trittin
Member of the German Bundestag, Spokesman on Foreign Affairs of the B90/The Greens Parliamentary Group, Berlin
"Consequences of Global Power Shifts for Transatlantic Defense Cooperation"
Jan Techau
Head, Speechwriting Unit, Federal Ministry of Defence, Berlin
Panel Discussion III
“ 'Zeitenwende' - Renaissance of Transatlantic Relations?"
Discussion
Dr. Andrew B. Denison
Director of Transatlantic Networks, Königswinter
Prof. Dr. Stephen Gethins
Professor of Practice in International Relations and Strategic Adviser on External Relations, University of St. Andrews
Dr. Elisabeth Hauschild
Senior Vice President External Affairs, Diehl Stiftung & Co. KG, Berlin
Dr. Seth A. Johnston
Visiting Professor in the Center for American Studies at Heidelberg University (Germany), adjunct faculty in the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army.
Chair
Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie
Henry Kissinger Professor for Security and Strategic Studies and Director of CASSIS, University
Abstract
In the third panel of the ISFB 2022, the transformation of transatlantic relations was on the agenda. The topic was introduced by two impulse statements: Jürgen Trittin on “The Impact of Current Global Challenges on the Transatlantic Agenda” and Jan Techau on “Consequences of Global Power Shifts for Transatlantic Defense Cooperation.”
In the months before the war in the Ukraine, Germany and France came to the wrong conclusion that Russia would not attack the Ukraine. And even though the sanctions against Russia are intended to cut off Russia, they won’t be able to stop the war. Now the Zeitenwende in Germany demands a strategic change in Europe’s security strategy. Despite NATO’s efforts to close the gap of Europe’s lack of deterrence, it is now up to Europe to increase its deterrence, especially in light of Europe being a complementary force. Furthermore, Europe needs to show solidarity and an interest in stability in international relations. Germany should position itself as the key actor in implementing and reinforcing Europe’s strategic landscape.
In both statements it was highlighted that China will play a key role in the transatlantic relations after the war in Ukraine, and already presents a geostrategic challenge for the US. In the future, in times of crises, China’s markets would be even harder to replace than Russia’s. The lesson Europe needs to learn from its economic dependence in certain sectors like energy, is to diversify its markets with continued interdependence. Overall, a new pivot from the German and American perspective to Asia will accelerate.
The impulse statements were followed by a discussion on the topic of “'Zeitenwende' - Renaissance of Transatlantic Relations?” with Andrew B. Dension, Prof. Dr. Stephen Gethins, Dr. Elisabeth Hauschild and Dr. Seth A. Johnston, moderated by Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie.
Panel Discussion IV
"Tech Middle Powers in the Geopolitical Storm: New Opportunities for Strategic Cooperation?"
Discussion
Dr. Gedaliah Afterman
Head of the Asia Policy Program at the Abba Eban Institute for International Diplomacy, Reichman University, Israel
Christiane Heidbrink
Research Fellow, Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn
Seung-jae HUH
Consul-General of the South Korean Embassy’s branch office in Bonn
Dr. Narayanappa Janardhan
Senior Research Fellow, Anwar Gargash Academy, Abu Dhabi
Chair
Andrea Rotter
Head of the Department Foreign and Security Policy, Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung, Munich
Abstract
In the fourth panel discussion at the ISFB Main Day 2022, Dr. Gedaliah Afterman, Christiane Heidbrink, Seung-jae Huh and Dr. Narayanappa Janardhan talked about "Tech Middle Powers in the Geopolitical Storm: New Opportunities for Strategic Cooperation?" Skillfully moderated by Andrea Rotter, the participants talked about the opportunities and challenges which come with the rising influence of tech middle powers, and discussed how Europe could position itself in a changing geopolitical reality, because as Christiane Heidbrink stated: “Who controls technology, controls the future.” Dr. Gedaliah Afterman pointed out the importance of decoupling modernization from westernization as an indicator for a changing world. The participants agreed that strategic cooperation, with a clearly communicated goal, especially between middle powers, will be crucial if they want to avoid getting left behind China and the US. In the end, the participants concluded that one of the most relevant tasks for the future will be the handling of so-called western values and identities when it comes to strategic cooperation. Or as Prof. Dr. Maximilian Mayer summed up in his remarks: “It’s not only about managing the power competition. For Germany, “Zeitenwende” means it needs to focus on the tasks ahead, to identify problem areas and to develop solutions which are then consistently pursued.
Dinner Debate (Invitation Only)
“ 'Zeitenwende' and strategic change: a new era for Paris and Berlin?"
Welcoming Remarks
Dr. Matthieu Osmont
Director of the French Institute in Bonn, Attaché for academic cooperation at the French Embassy in Germany
Impulse Statement
Jean-Louis Gergorin
Owner of JLG Strategy and Senior Lecturer at the Institut d’etudes politiques de Paris (Sciences Po)
Prof. Joachim Bitterlich
Ambassador (ret) and Professor at the École Supérieure de Commerce de Paris (ESCP Europe)
Chair
Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie
Henry Kissinger Professor for Security and Strategic Studies and Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn
Abstract
To conclude the eventful day, the former ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany in France Prof. Joachim Fröhlich and the French politician and senior lecturer at the Sciences Po Jean-Louis Gergorin talked together with Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie in an informal Dinner Debate about the future of the Franco-German Relations and their implications for the European Union. The panel was organized with our partners from the Centre-Ernst-Curtis, the Institut Francais Bonn, and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation as part of the discussion series “German-Franco Strategic Dialogue” under the title “Zeitenwende and Strategic Change: A New Era or Paris and Berlin?”
The two experienced statesmen and proven experts in German-Franco relations analyzed and discussed the greatest challenges for the cooperation between the two most important European countries and drew a thoroughly worrying picture. Topics such as joint armament projects, the joint operations in Africa, and cyber security, offered the guests a broad spectrum of insights into the challenges of the future. The day ended with a vigorous appeal for the renewal of the German-Franco relations.
10.00 a.m. Opening & Welcoming Remarks
Dr. Enrico Fels
CASSIS Bonn
Prof. Dr. Annette Scheersoi
Vice Rector for Sustainability
Prof. Dr. Volker Kronenberg
Dean of the Faculty of Arts
10.30 a.m. Keynote Speech
"The Nexus of Climate Change and Security: Between Conflict and Cooperation"
Prof. Dr. Jürgen Scheffran
PI Cluster of Excellence “Climate, Climate Change and Society”, Hamburg University
11.30 a.m. Input Session 1
"The Nexus of Climate Change and Security in a New Epoch of Geopolitics"
Laura Birkman
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Shiloh Fetzek
International Institute for Strategic Studies, Washington DC
Yana Popkostova
European Union Institute for Security Studies, Paris
Dr. Frank Umbach
European European Cluster for Climate Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) at CASSIS
Chair
Dr. Marian Feist
German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)
2.30 p.m. Input Session 2
"Tackling Climate Security – Governance, Actors, Tools"
Prof. Dr. Brahma Chellaney
Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi
Dr. Angélique Palle
Institut de Recherche Stratégique de l'Ecole Militaire, Paris
Prof. Dr. Susanne Schmeier
IHE Delft
Dr. Paola Vesco
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Chair
Dr. Florian Krampe
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
5.00 p.m. Panel Discussion (public, digital)
"Assessing Climate and Security Research in North Rhine-Westphalia"
Introduction
"Mapping Security Research Made in NRW" (Sicherheitsforschung.NRW)
Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie
CASSIS Bonn
Discussion
Dr. Ines Dombrowsky
IDOS, Bonn
Prof. Dr. Jakob Rhyner
Bonn Alliance
Dr. Lukas Hermwille
Wuppertal Institut
Prof. Dr. Shen Xiaomeng
United Nations University, Bonn
Chair
Dr. Mayssoun Zein Al Din
AIA NRW
Saturday, October 1, 2022
Strategic Foresight Workshop, Oct. 1 & 2 (in German, by invitation only)
9.00 a.m. Wake-Up Call (public, hybrid)
"Die Bedeutung und Umsetzung Strategischer Vorausschau in der Praxis"
Dr. Philine Warnke
Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung
Chair
Prof. James Bindenagel
CASSIS Bonn
11.00 a.m. Introduction & Recap
Methodische Einführung
Ergebnisse der Trendanalyse
11.30 a.m. Uncertainty Analysis
Plenum
2.30. p.m. Lunch Input (public, hybrid)
“Future Global Megatrends, Development Cooperation and Security”
Prof. Dr. Anna-Katharina Hornidge
IDOS
3.30 p.m. Scenario Development
Sunday, October 2, 2022
9.00 a.m. Wake-Up Call (public, hybrid)
“A View on Climate Change and Security from the Regions”
Sebastian Vagt
Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit in Marokko
Dr. Vanessa Gottwick
Kompetenzzentrum Krisenfrüherkennung an der Universität der Bundeswehr
11.00 a.m. Recap
Plenum
11.30 a.m. Input: Backcasting
12.00 p.m. Strategy Development I
In small groups
2.00 p.m. Strategy Development II
In small groups
3.30 p.m. Presentation and Discussion of the Strategies
Plenum
5.00 p.m. Debriefing
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