International Security Forum Bonn 2023

October 19 - October 22, 2023

For many years, the International Security Forum Bonn (ISFB) has been serving as a platform to convene distinguished international experts and practitioners of security and foreign policy, and to debate the future of transatlantic relations and key challenges in international politics. The objectives are to identify ways and means for a successful German, European and transatlantic, foreign and security policy, as well as to develop and discuss comprehensive strategic solutions to pressing security challenges.

Under the title "A world out of joint - global power shifts and religious extremism", experts from various countries met in Bonn on the Main Day of the forum to discuss the future of transatlantic relations in the shadow of growing threats from international religious extremism. Among the most important questions were:

What are the security implications of the war between Russia and Ukraine? How has the international world order changed in light of the terrorist attacks of the Hamas on Israel? What does growing antisemitism mean for our societies and how do we fight it as a transnational security alliance? How can we create greater social awareness on the threats posed by religious extremism? What lessons can be learned from the Afghanistan conflict?

Abstract:

The first panel of ISFB 2023 on the topic of "Global Power Shifts and the Future Strategic Landscape", chaired by Dr. Mayssoun Zein Al Din and Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schlie, dealt with the fundamental changes in the international world order under the aspect of the terrorist attacks of the last decades and the emergence of a new global narrative. The panel started with an impulse statement by Professor Beatrice de Graaf on the need for a new redemptive narrative on religion as a dominant and serious factor for radicalization. She used terms like "gamification" to make the path of radicalization more understandable. The panel included contributions from Sir Richard Shirreff and Prof. Phillips O'Brien. The war in the Middle East was omnipresent and raised many questions about the future of international cooperation, regarding security options for the region or economic stabilization.

Third Panel: "Afghanistan and Pakistan in the new geopolitics of Asia"

Peter C. W. Flory
Senior Fellow with SAFE and former NATO Assistant Secretary General, Washington

Jill Long
Former Air Attaché at the Embassy of the United States in Germany, Berlin

Prof. Jochen Prantl
Professor for Strategic and Defence Studies, Australian National University, Canberra

H.E. Syedah Saqlain
Ambassador of the State of Pakistan to Germany, Berlin

Discussion led by

PD Dr. Evelyn Bokler-Völkel
Research Fellow, Centre for Islamic Theology, University of Münster

Concluding remarks

Prof. Ulrich Schlie
Henry Kissinger Professor for Security and Strategic Studies, Director of CASSIS, University of Bonn

Abstract:

In the last panel of the Main Day, the role of Pakistan and Afghanistan in the new geopolitics of Asia was on the agenda. The topic was introduced by an input from Jill Long about her experiences in Afghanistan as a former Air Attaché and by Peter Flory about the relationship between Pakistan and the United States of America. After 9/11 the relationship reached their low point. The statements were followed by a discussion with Jill Long, Peter Flory and Prof. Jochen Prantl which was moderated by PD Dr. Evelyn Bokler-Völkel. It was emphasized that lessons must be learned from the mission in Afghanistan. It was concluded that military strategy alone does not work, states and alliances need to be aware of their cognitive biases in order to strategize. For missions like Afghanistan, the NATO states need to distinguish between their strategic goals and their capabilities in the sense of what they can realistically achieve. It was criticized that that the mission to rebuild Afghanistan was too large and lacks specialized personnel.

Keynote 1

"Strategic Pathways for Sustainable Hydrogen Evolution"

Prof. Dr. Detlef Stolten
Forschungszentrum Jülich

The international conference day was opened by a keynote speech "Strategic Pathways for Sustainable Hydrogen Evolution" by Prof. Dr. Detlef Stolten. He provided the valuable ground for further discussions, giving the participants insights in the relevant and practice orientated research on hydrogen at the Forschungszentrum Jülich and their advisory to various political as well as economic actors. Besides numerous future use cases, Prof. Stolten underlined hydrogen’s essential role in the transportation sector’s energy transition in the medium-term time frame.

Input Session 1: "Geopolitics of Energy Transitions"

Dr. Gilles Lepesant 
Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS)

Michael Rühle
Climate and Energy Security Section, NATO, ret.

Prof. Dr. Maria Julia Trombetta
University of Nottingham Ningbo

Dr. Frank Umbach
European Cluster for Climate Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) at CASSIS

Chair:

PD Dr. Antje Nötzold
University of Technology Chemnitz

Abstract:

The first panel of the Bonn Future Lab focused especially on the importance of protecting critical infrastructure, like pipelines and cybersecurity. Furthermore, the importance of long-term and reliable energy strategies and partnerships with diversified suppliers were also emphasized. Besides the global geopolitical lens, the green transition in the armed forces was discussed in the panel. Which role can and should armies play? Besides obvious challenges of supply and an emphasis on the military’s capacity to act, opportunities out of new technologies were highlighted. The conclusion of this input session ended with a plea: Keeping the Energy Transition on track, it is important to ensure that key industries remain in Germany and Europe. 

Input Session 2: "Geoeconomics and Energy Transitions"

Prof. Dr. Marc Oliver Bettzüge
Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI)

Dr. Kevin Dayaratna
Heritage Foundation

Prof. Dr. Stefan Liebing
Conjuncta GmbH

Chair:

Prof. Dr. Hubertus Bardt
German Economic Institute (IW)

Abstract:

The second discussion focused on the "Geoeconomics and Energy Transitions" The main point was that policy makers have to provide a quick and, above all, realistic schedule for the energy transition for other actors to orientate. While ignoring climate change would cost billions, a number of technologies have to pave the way. Green hydrogen might fill the gaps of our economies in which green electricity will not be able to deliver. The repeated call for a diversification of energy suppliers was complemented by a strategic perspective on resources, as well. Strategic and rare minerals have to be taken into the account of a reliable and responsible energy security.

Input Session 3: "Innovation and Technology: Shortcuts to Sustainable Futures?"

Prof. Dr. Kathleen J. Hancock
Colorado School of Mines

Prof. Dr. Stefanie Meilinger
International Centre for Sustainable Development (IZNE), University of Applied Sciences Bonn-Rhein-Sieg

Gilles Le Van
Large Industries and Energy Transition Central Europe, Air Liquide Deutschland GmbH

Chair:

Dr. Bert Droste-Franke
Institut für qualifizierende Innovationsforschung und -beratung GmbH (IQIB)

Abstract:

During the third input session, a panel of experts spoke about the topic of "Innovation and Technology: Shortcuts to Sustainable Futures?" Meaningful and strategic innovation in pioneering countries as the US might be significantly hampered by public polarization, right wing populism, and voters’ disinterest. This is forming to be a threat to energy transitions in a number of western countries. Political inability for compromise and long-term strategic and stable decisions encounters a – though vibrant – complex and short-lived sphere of research and development. Unfortunately, there is no “silver bullet” for green transitions and hydrogen is only valuable in specific, large scale, energy intensive use cases. Broad spending and venture capital for new and emerging technologies is needed.

Input Session 4: "Beyond Dependence: Energy Cooperation Among Tech Middle Powers"

Mohammed Baharoon
Dubai Public Policy Research Center (b’huth)

Prof. Dr. Jochen Prantl
Australian National University

Dr. Rita Strohmaier
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)

Dr. Erick Tambo
Pan African Cooperation and Educational Technologies (PACET), United Nations University

Chair:

Prof. Dr. Maximilian Mayer
CASSIS, University of Bonn

Abstract:

The conference day concluded with a fourth and final panel, which engaged in a spirited debate on the topic "Beyond Dependence: Energy Cooperation Among Tech Middle Powers”. During the session, it quickly became clear that all participants agreed that global energy demand will increase many times over by 2040. Therefore, energy security will be even more important than it already is. With regard to security of supply, the so-called Middle Power countries can play a special role. While countries today are so closely linked that there will be no complete independence for any actor, coalitions of middle powers can orchestrate and mediate to great reliance on single suppliers or the will of great powers.

Saturday

Wake-Up Call: "Wehrhaft. Resilient. Nachhaltig. Über die außen- und sicherheitspolitische Strategiefähigkeit der Bundesregierung"

Welcome:

Dr. Enrico Fels
CASSIS, University of Bonn

Panel:

Prof. Dr. René Bantes
Fraunhofer Institute for Technological Trend Analysis INT

Dr. Henning Riecke
Bundesakademie für Sicherheitspolitik (BAKS)

Dr. Olaf Theiler
Future Analysis Branch, Bundeswehr Planning Office

Chair:

Jessica Nies
Gesellschaft für Sicherheitspolitik e.V. (GSP)

Abstract:

Each of the two (German) Strategic Workshop’s days was opened by an exclusive wake-up call for the participants. The first took place as the panel "Wehrhaft. Resilient. Nachhaltig. Über die außen- und sicherheitspolitische Strategiefähigkeit der Bundesregierung". The experts agreed that the federal government's strategic capability could be improved. After all, in times like these, when many crises are happening at the same time, strategic foresight has become even more important for achieving strategic goals and maintaining security. In addition, it was also discussed that the naming and elaboration of one's own interests is a precondition for a country's strategic capability. According to the experts, the German government is still struggling with this, but it is important that it is being worked on.

Sunday

Wake-Up Call: "Energiekrise oder -chance? Der Blick aus den Regionen"

Dr. Clemens von Doderer
Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung e.V. Namibia

Birgit Lamm
Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit Pakistan

Chair:

Maximilian Schranner
CASSIS, University of Bonn

Abstract:

The second Wake-Up Call was dedicated to the topic "Energiekrise oder -chance? Der Blick aus den Regionen". The discussion, chaired by Maximilian Schranner (CASSIS), focused inverse situations of Energy Security in Namibia and Pakistan. The experts on the ground highlighted that Namibia is all in on the opportunities a green transition could offer while Pakistan is restricted by basic challenges of providing reliable energy to its massive population. While Namibia can profit and energy partnerships with Germany are discussed, Pakistan is hurtfully hit by the multiple crises on the world stage – namely Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Islamabad is forced to pay higher prices for energy imports on the world market. This is reinforcing Pakistan's already poor economic situation and preventing sustainable investment in energy infrastructure.