The complexity of the war in Israel and Gaza, triggered by Hamas' terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, poses major challenges for both the region and the international community. Expressions of solidarity for Israeli and Palestinian civilian victims run counter to hard economic and geopolitical interests.
Fenja Wiluda, research associate at the Henry Kissinger Professorship for Security and Strategy Research at CASSIS at the University of Bonn, outlined the complex interests of the Gulf states. All of the six states - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman - condemned the Hamas attack, but criticized Israel's counter-attack just as strongly. In addition to Qatar's attempts to mediate between Israel and Hamas, there were several regional crisis meetings, albeit without any significant results. In view of the lack of concrete peace initiatives or practical solutions, the expressions of solidarity with the Palestinian civilian population appear to be more of a symbolic nature. Ms. Wiluda recognizes the pattern of pendulum diplomacy in the hesitancy. Depending on the subjective threat perception and economic interests, this ranges from isolation to rapprochement with Israel while at the same time trying not to alienate any of the regional players, above all Iran. In this balancing act, the Gulf states are certainly not throwing their full weight behind settling the conflict.
Dr. Sascha Arnautović, Chairman and Managing Director of the Cologne Forum for International Relations and Security (KFIBS), analyzed the reaction of the USA as Israel's largest protecting power and highlighted the historically developed “special relationship” between the two countries. The Biden-Harris government emphasized Israel's right to exist and demonstrated this through comprehensive military aid. Support for Israel in the USA is still widespread due to a strong “Israel lobby” and support from important Christian right organizations. However, the student protests at US universities and criticism, particularly from left-wing and Muslim circles, showed that Joe Biden's Middle East policy is under strong pressure. As Biden's possible successor, Donald Trump could work more towards a deal at the negotiating table, possibly involving the Gulf states.
The presentations and the subsequent discussion provided a differentiated view of the complex interplay of geopolitical interests in a region whose security instability goes beyond the war in the Gaza Strip. The two speakers would like to thank the organizers and all participants!
Impressions by Julian Schneider, research assistant at the Henry Kissinger Professorship for Security and Strategy Research at CASSIS at the University of Bonn.